The crisis on Wall Street is like a Rorschach test:
it seduces people into making statements that
primarily reflect their own state of mind. Everybody
finds something to his liking that he latches onto.
Germans, with characteristic bombast, are talking
about an economic 9/11 self-inflicted on Wall Street
by investment bankers turned suicide attackers.
The French, in typical sweeping language, are proclaiming
the need to re-invent capitalism. Sarko will unveil proposals for a new
world order on a summit later this year.
Chinese media, without apparent sense of irony,
point to excess creation of US liquidity and debt.
Which are hugely financed by Chinese government dollar holdings.
American conservatives decry massive government intervention
as 'socialist' and 'un-American'. In other news, 25 billion
dollars of taxpayer money has just been awarded to the US car industry
for failing to anticipate fuel-efficiency demand.
Closet socialists, populists and just about everybody is
tumbling over each other to condemn Wall Street greed
and fat cat bonuses.
Economists, meanwhile, are furiously debating what the
heck is going on. Is this a liquidity crisis, or a solvency
crisis? Isn't it insane to throw a trillion dollars at a problem
we don't understand? Isn't it irresponsible not to?
The problem is: everybody is right -- well, except maybe the Germans
.
The causes of this crisis are myriad: greed and corruption,
faulty decisions, faulty technical models, excess liquidity, liquidity contraction,
insolvency, intransparancy, lack of oversight and regulation,
absurd levels of leverage, you name it.
If everybody is right, that probably means nobody really understands what
is going on. There's a different perspective that doesn't get wrapped up
in the inner workings of the financial system. More on that later.